You presuppose Putin’s goal is the subjugation and long term control of Ukraine. It’s not. His only real goal is to prevent one of his border states from joining NATO. They were threatening to do so under claim of sovereignty, and he told them their sovereignty doesn’t extend that far. Just as the United States subjugates Central America and the Caribbean, Putin subjugates his border states. The only reason Ukraine was cut loose from Russia 30 years ago was because Russia didn’t want to support Ukraine.

Russia is going to cause havoc in Ukraine and then pull out their troops and go back home. They will leave Western aid to clean up the mess, which drains our resources and strengthens him. And he will have “Won” because he will have sent a clear message to Ukraine and Belarus that joining NATO is not acceptable.

The real test will be when he starts threatening the Baltic states who are a member of NATO on his border. That’s when paying attention to what Russia does becomes really important.